sábado, 27 de fevereiro de 2010

China: R-X by Deutsche Bank

China‟s central government shows a strong commitment to its regional development strategies which are bearing fruit: high growth is shifting from the coast to inland provinces and low-cost labour supply is declining. This enforces structural change in coastal regions towards higher value-added products while labour-intensive manufacturing is moving to inland provinces. Pinning hopes on China to take the place of the US consumer is asking too much. While private consumption offers some catch-up potential especially in China‟s non-coastal provinces this will not be enough to offset the loss in demand from the US. Moreover, much of the additional demand for consumer goods will be served by local companies, thus dampening prospects for foreign competitors or exporters from other countries. Still, opportunities exist in inner and coastal China. Some inland provinces may serve as springboard to neighbouring countries like Yunnan province for Vietnam or some western provinces for Central Asia. Moreover, higher value-added production and increasing the importance of non-wage competitive factors offers should help to increase importance of the services sector.

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