Crescimento, inovação, PEC, vinho,...

Daniel Bessa

Crescimento no PEC é flor de estilo

o crescimento económico de Portugal está hipotecado nos próximos anos, de forma muito séria, não directamente por culpa do PEC, mas sim das políticas de "insustentabilidade" que marcaram a década de 90.

Portugal está inserido no grupo de países que só podem crescer pela inovação

Vinho: pós-graduação católica

Razões para cepticismo sobre a recuperação (Roach)

O Roubini pode ser o Mr. Doom, mas o Roach não pode/deve ser ignorado - até porque não lhe fica atrás.

There are four key reasons to remain skeptical about the vigor and sustainability of any rebound in the global economy:

First, the financial crisis itself is far from over. The latest International Monetary Fund estimates put the potential for worldwide writedowns of toxic assets at approximately $3.4 trillion; so far, realized markdowns have been only about half that amount. This points to further earnings impairments for financial institutions and concomitant restraints on their lending capacity.

Second, the breadth of this global recession was staggering. At its low point in March 2009, 75 percent of the world’s economies were contracting. Typically, the figure is closer to 50 percent. This means it will be much harder to turn around this recession-torn world.

Third, the demand side of the global economy is likely to be restrained by a protracted pullback of the over-extended American consumer. In the face of a massive labor market shock to jobs and wage earnings, together with the bursting of property and credit bubbles, the consumption share of the U.S. economy is likely to fall by five full percentage points of gross domestic product -- from its current record of 71.2 percent to the pre-bubble norm of 66 percent.

This should reduce trend growth of real consumption from the almost 4 percent pace of the pre-crisis decade to 1.5 percent to 2 percent over the next three to five years. No other consumer in the world is capable of filling this void.

Fourth, the supply side of the global economy suffers from massive imbalances, especially China-centric developing Asia. While, on the surface, post-crisis resilience of the Chinese economy has been impressive, it turns out that 95 percent of the 7.7 percent GDP growth realized in the first three quarters of 2009 was concentrated in the fixed investment sector, which already accounts for an unheard of 45 percent of GDP.

Obama ao Congresso: 1.º, inovação...

ainda no Economic Report

(destaques meus)

For growth to be truly sustainable — for our prosperity to be truly shared and our living standards to actually rise—we need to move beyond an economy that is fueled by budget deficits and consumer demand. In other words, in order to create jobs and raise incomes for the middle class over the long run, we need to export more and borrow less from around the world, and we need to save more money and take on less debt here at home. As we rebuild, we must also rebalance.
In order to achieve this, we’ll need to grow this economy by growing our capacity to innovate in burgeoning industries, while putting a stop to irresponsible budget policies and financial dealings that have led us into such a deep fiscal and economic hole.
That begins with policies that will promote innovation throughout our economy. To spur the discoveries that will power new jobs, new businesses — and perhaps new industries—I have challenged both the public sector and the private sector to devote more resources to research and development. And to achieve this, my budget puts us on a path to double investment in key research agencies and makes the research and experimentation tax credit permanent.

(p. 7)

EUA: Uma ressaca maior que a bebedeira

A propósito do relatório económico anual do presidente dos EUA , que é sempre um grande - fisica e figuradamente - documento, repesquei esta parte, relativa à última aula de GC e ao gráfico lá em baixo:

The boom was fueled in part by irresponsible and in some cases predatory lending practices, risky investment strategies, faulty credit ratings, and lax regulation. When the boom ended, the result was widespread defaults and crippling blows to key financial institutions, magnifying the decline in house prices and causing enormous spillovers to the remainder of the economy.

(p.39).

China: Milagre ou... business as usual?

China’s leadership is walking a tightrope, attempting to balance unsustainable economic growth against potential political unrest. Beijing has managed to stave off a major crisis through repeated stopgap measures, but how long can it continue?

Neste sítio indispensável, ou, pelo menos, altamente recomendável.

A Chinese miracle - but how long can it last?

According to an increasing number of investors and economists, the Chinese boom in cheap money may have triggered an unsustainable increase in the value of stocks and property. In the past year, the Chinese leadership, committed to sustained economic growth, poured $585 billion in stimulus money into its domestic economy, then ordered state-run banks to double their lending. Thus China's 2009 boom is better viewed as a sign of an overheating economy.

No The First Post

Reassessing China’s Sovereign Risk:
Emerging Global and DomesticTrends Threaten the “Chinese Miracle"

sumário - Today, thanks in part to its investment-grade sovereign credit rating, China is seen as a strong credit risk. But is this just a mirage? Kevin O’Brien argues that political, social, environmental and economic trends — including “artificial” ratings, massive amounts of non-performing loans in the state banking sector and the Chinese government’s default on billions of dollars worth of credit sovereign debt — make China very risky.

Contrary to the prevailing perception of China as a relatively benign credit risk, recent research1 demonstrates that the country has been subject to troubling trends - including escalating incidences of civil unrest; adverse labor demographic; severe environmental degradation; wage inflation; soaring transportation costs; failure to address state institutions’ bad debt; a transparently artificial sovereign credit rating; and the erosion of Beijing’s central authority — that represent an ominous threat to its economic outlook.
In fact, the myth of China’s ever-expanding economy belies sustainability issues that comprise the core of China’s economic development. This article summarizes some of the key global and domestic trends impacting China’s political economy and reveals why the so-called Chinese Miracle may be facing the very real threat of a dramatic reversal.
One of the greatest problems facing China is the government’s failure to acknowledge and effectively address the true extent of state institutions’ bad debt. China’s financial system continues to generate many non-perform...

o resto aqui.

Segurança social e desempenho económico

outro artigo do BdP


SEGURANÇA SOCIAL E DESEMPENHO ECONÓMICO EM PORTUGAL*

Alfredo Marvão Pereira**

1. INTRODUÇÃO

A reforma do sistema de segurança social tem estado no cerne da actual discussão de política económica em vários países (...)

texto na íntegra aqui.

Manuela Silva - Crescimento e pobreza

descobri este texto da Manuela Silva, que talvez interesse para PSCS

Crescimento económico
e pobreza em Portugal (1950-74)**

é da Análise Social de 1982, e está aqui

abre com esta citação do Seers, sobre desenvolvimento e crescimento:

Desenvolvimento é inevitavelmente um termo normativo e devemos interrogar-nos sobre as condições necessárias para um objectivo
universalmente aceite — a realização da personalidade humana.
As questões sociais que podem colocar-se acerca do desenvolvimento de um país são portanto: o que tem acontecido relativamente à pobreza? O que tem acontecido relativamente ao desemprego? O que tem acontecido relativamente à desigualdade? Se estes três fenómenos têm diminuído com o aumento dos rendimentos, então tem sido
um período de desenvolvimento para o país em questão. Se um ou dois destes fenómenos se têm degradado, e especialmente se se têm degradado os três, será absurdo chamar ao resultado «desenvolvimento », mesmo se o rendimento per capita duplicar.

(D. Seers, 1969)

Começa assim:

Ao contrário do que vem sucedendo em outras latitudes, designadamente na América Latina, onde existe hoje uma literatura relativamente abundante e de qualidade acerca da avaliação das experiências de desenvolvimento realizadas nos países dessa área geográfica em função do binómio crescimento/repartição, entre nós, as análises feitas não têm, até agora, privilegiado e menos ainda aprofundado um tal enfoque.
O silêncio que tem pesado sobre esta questão deve-se a múltiplas razões: o contexto político de repressão social que prevaleceu até 1974, a ausência de estatísticas adequadas, a própria orientação teórica (e ideológica) dos economistas de profissão.
Quanto a esta última, importa precisar que a axiomática neoclássica de que dependeu a formação de várias gerações de economistas supõe que o crescimento económico é função do investimento e este função da poupança e ainda que o nível de poupança está relacionado com a concentração do rendimento. Num tal quadro teórico, a desigualdade é considerada uma situação inevitável nas fases iniciais do crescimento,
admitindo-se que irá sendo gradualmente corrigida à medida que se dá o progresso económico, ...