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(A imagem é para isto não ficar tão sério, além de que é alusiva ao inverno. Já repararam que tem chovido? Tou farto de levar molhas quando vou à Catedral: Porto, Hertha,...!)

Razões para cepticismo sobre a recuperação (Roach)

O Roubini pode ser o Mr. Doom, mas o Roach não pode/deve ser ignorado - até porque não lhe fica atrás.

There are four key reasons to remain skeptical about the vigor and sustainability of any rebound in the global economy:

First, the financial crisis itself is far from over. The latest International Monetary Fund estimates put the potential for worldwide writedowns of toxic assets at approximately $3.4 trillion; so far, realized markdowns have been only about half that amount. This points to further earnings impairments for financial institutions and concomitant restraints on their lending capacity.

Second, the breadth of this global recession was staggering. At its low point in March 2009, 75 percent of the world’s economies were contracting. Typically, the figure is closer to 50 percent. This means it will be much harder to turn around this recession-torn world.

Third, the demand side of the global economy is likely to be restrained by a protracted pullback of the over-extended American consumer. In the face of a massive labor market shock to jobs and wage earnings, together with the bursting of property and credit bubbles, the consumption share of the U.S. economy is likely to fall by five full percentage points of gross domestic product -- from its current record of 71.2 percent to the pre-bubble norm of 66 percent.

This should reduce trend growth of real consumption from the almost 4 percent pace of the pre-crisis decade to 1.5 percent to 2 percent over the next three to five years. No other consumer in the world is capable of filling this void.

Fourth, the supply side of the global economy suffers from massive imbalances, especially China-centric developing Asia. While, on the surface, post-crisis resilience of the Chinese economy has been impressive, it turns out that 95 percent of the 7.7 percent GDP growth realized in the first three quarters of 2009 was concentrated in the fixed investment sector, which already accounts for an unheard of 45 percent of GDP.

China: Milagre ou... business as usual?

China’s leadership is walking a tightrope, attempting to balance unsustainable economic growth against potential political unrest. Beijing has managed to stave off a major crisis through repeated stopgap measures, but how long can it continue?

Neste sítio indispensável, ou, pelo menos, altamente recomendável.

A Chinese miracle - but how long can it last?

According to an increasing number of investors and economists, the Chinese boom in cheap money may have triggered an unsustainable increase in the value of stocks and property. In the past year, the Chinese leadership, committed to sustained economic growth, poured $585 billion in stimulus money into its domestic economy, then ordered state-run banks to double their lending. Thus China's 2009 boom is better viewed as a sign of an overheating economy.

No The First Post

Reassessing China’s Sovereign Risk:
Emerging Global and DomesticTrends Threaten the “Chinese Miracle"

sumário - Today, thanks in part to its investment-grade sovereign credit rating, China is seen as a strong credit risk. But is this just a mirage? Kevin O’Brien argues that political, social, environmental and economic trends — including “artificial” ratings, massive amounts of non-performing loans in the state banking sector and the Chinese government’s default on billions of dollars worth of credit sovereign debt — make China very risky.

Contrary to the prevailing perception of China as a relatively benign credit risk, recent research1 demonstrates that the country has been subject to troubling trends - including escalating incidences of civil unrest; adverse labor demographic; severe environmental degradation; wage inflation; soaring transportation costs; failure to address state institutions’ bad debt; a transparently artificial sovereign credit rating; and the erosion of Beijing’s central authority — that represent an ominous threat to its economic outlook.
In fact, the myth of China’s ever-expanding economy belies sustainability issues that comprise the core of China’s economic development. This article summarizes some of the key global and domestic trends impacting China’s political economy and reveals why the so-called Chinese Miracle may be facing the very real threat of a dramatic reversal.
One of the greatest problems facing China is the government’s failure to acknowledge and effectively address the true extent of state institutions’ bad debt. China’s financial system continues to generate many non-perform...

o resto aqui.

angústias orientais de um ocidental

A implosão da China será antes ou depois da dos EUA?

para mais angústias e desassossegos, ler este excertozinho:

While the US Department of Defense continues to focus on the emerging threat of China as a conventional power and Goldman Sachs contemplates the exact date of China's emergence as the world's leading economy, another scenario is building steam: that China will implode.

o resto está aqui.